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Monday, November 24, 2014

GENERAL PICTURE:

The current system will finish up today, with some accumulating snows in portions of the NE Midwest. The rest of the week looks colder, with a bit of light snow from time to time. Ideas currently call for another warm up and potential rain storm by early next week for the same areas impacted by this current system.

1-4 DAY FORECAST:

The current system will be working through the northeast Midwest today. Rains will be changing to snow in all of the UP, WI, northern IL, far northwest IN and the NW 2/3rds of MI as we go through the day today and a general 1-4” is likely in all of these areas. A pocket of 4-6” is possible across portions of central WI and lake enhancement/effect will boost totals into the 4-6” range in the western UP snow belts in the next 24 hours as well.

Things look to quiet down in the LES belts by tomorrow, with the first of at least two weak low pressure systems to start spreading snows into the NW Midwest tomorrow and then into the SW and south central for Wednesday. Most amounts with that event look to be in the 1-2” range.

A bit of LES is seen for the UP and NWL by later Wednesday and early Thursday and then another weak low looks to spread some light snows across most of the Northwoods for Friday and Friday night.

After a stint at above average, temps will fall back to below average as we go through the next 12-24 hours and look to remain below average for the rest of the week. Highs in the Northwoods look to be in the 20’s in most cases, with overnight lows in the single digits and teens.

5-10 DAY FORECAST:

Except for a bit of LES later Saturday night into Sunday and Sunday night, things look to be cool, but quiet for the weekend.

By Monday an area of low pressure looks to develop in the Plains and turn winds out of the south, causing temps to rise above freezing in many areas.

By later Tue into Wed, that low looks to develop rains in the SE 2/3rds of the Midwest. Confidence in the development of a low in the S. Plains that swings into the Midwest if pretty good as all the models indicate it to occur. However, it is still a very long way out to be putting a lot of faith into the details on. Right now, the results look to be very similar to what has just happened, meaning moderate to heavy rains to the SE of a line from around Kansas City to Green Bay, with lighter rains back into areas of IA, SE MN, NW WI and the UP.

Rains are then indicated to change to snow on the back side of the low, with the potential for some meaningful accumulations in NW WI and the western UP.

-John

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