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Friday, January 30, 2015

GENERAL PICTURE:

Changes are back to the idea of some significant snows to fall in the central Midwest later this weekend, with cold and LES to still get going as we head through the weekend and especially into much of next week.

1-4 DAY FORECAST:

Things look to be fairly quiet down in most of the region today and into most of tomorrow, with some lake effect bringing an inch or two to the UP LES belts every 24 hours or so.

An area of low pressure will develop in CO on Saturday and head east into the OH River Valley by Sunday. The latest ideas have this system back to being relatively strong and thus totals in the heaviest banding area will be in the 5-8” range, with a few locales possibly even seeing more than 8”. That band looks to lay down across southern IA, most of northern IL and northern sections of IN and OH.

A more general 3-6” will fall from extreme southern MN into northern IA, southern WI, southern lower MI and far northern IL.

Temps be falling to below average today and will continue into the weekend, with the freeze line sitting down into the central Midwest.

5-10 DAY FORECAST:

Things look to be fairly quiet down in most of the region for next week, with a few weak clipper systems to bring some light snows to the northern ˝ of the region from time to time, but nothing much more than an inch or two.

The main snow story in this time frame still looks to be the cold air that will flow across the mostly open waters of the Great Lakes and lead to fairly persistent LES for most of the period.

The LES still does not look to be overly heavy in any one particular 24 hour period, but will fall pretty persistently in the belts favored by west and NW winds (Porkies to Copper Harbor and Munising to Paradise in the UP as well as NWL MI) for much of next week. This could lead to quite a few locales picking up double digit totals next week.

-John

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